中国环境政策变迁逻辑与展望——基于共词与聚类分析

基于环境污染的负外部性，政府需要以环境政策等社会规制手段进行治理。自1973年以来，国家及各部委先后颁布了三千余项环境政策（不包括各省市区的环境政策），用以全面推进环境治理，提高我国环境质量。运用共词与聚类分析的研究方法可以展示政策聚焦点的变迁轨迹，反映出我国环境政策的变迁逻辑。研究发现：中国环境政策变迁经历了“开创”、“调整”、“战略发展”、“深化”和“稳定成熟”五个阶段，显示中国环境污染治理尤其是大气污染治理能力日益提升。同时表明，生态保护政策在特定时期成为政策热点、环境影响评价制度日趋完善以及环保标准体系日益健全等政策演进规律，这对以后的生态环境政策的制定与执行具有重要的启示意义。

The Logic of Change and Prospect of Environmental Policy of China:Based on Co-word and Cluster Analysis

Considering the negative externality of environmental pollution,the government needs to control it by means of social regulation such as environmental policy.Since 1973,the state and various ministries and commissions have promulgated more than 3,000 environmental policies to comprehensively promote environmental governance and improve the quality of China's environment,excluding those promulgated at the provincial and municipal level.The research methods of co-word and cluster analysis can show the change of policy focus and reflect the logic ofchange of China's environmental policy.It is found that the changes of China's environmental policy have gone through five stages of "initiation","adjustment","strategic development","deepening" and "stability and maturity",which shows that China's environmental pollution control capacity,especially the air pollution control capacity,is increasingly improving.The environmental policies follow an evolution rule in which the ecological protection policy becomes the policy hot spot in a specific time;the environmental impact assessment system and the environmental protection standard system are increasingly improved,which has an important enlightenment to the making and implementation of the future policies of ecological environment.