双重城镇化率的演变过程、面临挑战与应对策略

当前衡量我国城镇化水平的指标有两个：一是户籍人口城镇化率；二是常住人口城镇化率。常住人口和户籍人口之间，横隔着庞大的农民工群体。双重城镇化率的存在，源于与资本原始积累相依存的城乡二元体制与要素价格剪刀差。通过该制度的设计，人为地降低工业化、城镇化的成本，以加快我国工业化、城镇化步伐。在农村劳动力供大于求的背景下，这种城镇化模式还有发展的空间，当农村劳动力供求出现“拐点”，这种城镇化模式就难以为继，客观上要求必须用“以人为本”的新型城镇化取代传统的城镇化。用户籍人口城镇化取代常住人口城镇化，是城镇化的必然趋势。我国对外来人口实行居住证制度，作为农民工市民化的过渡性措施，或作为提高户籍人口城镇化率的过渡性措施。但对于外来人口来说，其利益最大化的模式，是既保留农村户籍又持有城镇居住证。这就决定了双重城镇化率将存在很长时间。

Evolution,Challenges and Coping Strategies of Dual Urbanization Rates

At present,there are two indicators of China's urbanization level:the first is the urbanization rate of registered residents and the second is the urbanization rate of permanent residents.Between the permanent population and the registered population,there is a large group of migrant workers.The existence of dual urbanization rates originates from the urban-rural dual system and factor price scissors which depend on the primitive accumulation of capital.Through the design of this system,the cost of industrialization and urbanization is artificially reduced to accelerate China's industrialization and urbanization.Under the background of the oversupply of rural labor force,there is still room for the urbanization of this model.However,when the supply and demand of rural labor force comes to an inflexion point,urbanization of this model will be unsustainable and objectively it requires that a new type of "people-oriented" urbanization should replace the traditional one.In our country,the residence permit system for migrants has been implemented as a transitional measure of citizenship for the rural residents,or as a transitional measure to increase the urbanization rate of the registered population.However,for the migrants,the mode of maximizing their benefits is to retain both rural household registration and urban residence permit.This determines that the dual urbanization rates will exist for a long time.