我国城镇单位人员就业增长与行业结构变迁关系研究

本文通过对18个行业2003~2010年的增加值及城镇单位就业人数两个基础数据的变动趋势及相关性分析后认为:我国城镇单位就业人员的行业集中度相对高且非常稳定,其就业结构与行业的增加值结构存在较密切的关联。从提高行业增加值总量来提升就业水平的角度而言,建筑业,卫生、社会保障和社会福利业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业三个行业具有很强的就业发展潜力;科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业,租赁和商务服务业等两个行业具有一定的就业发展潜力和发展空间;而制造业,教育业,公共管理和社会组织三个就业的支柱行业尽管就业潜力有限,但应巩固、维持其目前的就业规模。

Relationship between the Employment of Personnel in China’s Urban Units and the Changes of the Industrial Structure

Through an analysis of the transforming trends and the correlations between the added value and the number of employed personnel in urban units of 18 industrial sectors from 2003 to 2010,this article proposes that China’s industrial concentration ratio of employment in urban units is relatively high and very stable,and the structure of employment and sectors’ added value has close association.From the perspective of improving the level of employment in the sectors through increasing their added value,there are three sectors that possess great employment potential,namely,the industry of construction,the industry of health care,social security and social welfare;and the industry of water conservancy,environment protection and management of public facilities.Two sectors as scientific research,technical services and geological prospecting,and leasing and business services have quite good employment potential and space;while three pillar sectors of employment like manufacturing,education,public management and social organizations,though with limited potential of employment,should be consolidated and their current employment scales maintained.