基于云PDR的区域物流能力评价研究

物流能力的提升是区域经济社会发展面临的重要问题。构建包括物流人才、物流基础设施、物流产出规模、物流发展环境四个一级指标在内的区域物流能力评价指标体系,以中国7个区域及其中20个省(市)的相关数据为样本,基于云概率优势关系(云PDR)方法进行评价,并据此从"综合水平-波动"和"投入-产出"两方面对样本分类。结果显示:在物流能力的水平和波动方面,各区域及省(市)差异显著,具有不同的驱动因素与薄弱环节,分属于积极的持续提升型、高效的持续提升型、低效的稳定发展型、低效的探索追赶型和保守落后型五种类型。因此,应结合不同地区所属类型的特征采取不同发展对策:物流发展处于保守落后型的区域应进一步加强物流发展意识、物流能力与发展水平相对平稳的区域应加快物流基础设施建设、物流发展相对活跃的区域应完善物流人才培养体系、物流能力与发展水平较高的区域应提升物流投入产出比,推动区域物流能力的全面提升。

Evaluation of Regional Logistics Capability Based on Cloud PDR

The improvement of logistics capability is crucial to the regional economic and social development.A regional logistics capability evaluation index system including four first-class indexes of logistics talents,logistics infrastructure,logistics output scale and logistics development environment is constructed.Using the cloud probabilistic dominance relation method,this paper evaluates and classifies seven regions and twenty provinces(cities) of China in terms of "comprehensive level fluctuation" and "input-output".The results show that:in terms of the level and fluctuation of logistics capacity,there are significant differences among the regions and provinces(eities),and with different driving factors and weak links,they can be classified into five types,namely,positive continuous enhancement,high-efficiency continuous enhancement,poor-efficiency stable development,poor-efficiency exploration and pursuing,and conservative and backward.Therefore,this paper puts forward the following suggestions to improve the regional logistics capability according to the characteristics of different regions:(1) strengthening the consciousness of logistics development in conservative and backward regions;(2) speeding up the construction of logistics infrastructure in stable development regions;(3) improving talent training system in regions where logistics development is relatively active;and(4) promoting input-output ratio in regions with high logistics capacity and level of development.