基于完全分解模型的能源消费变动及影响因素分析

在分析Laspeyres指数及其模型不足的基础上,提出更完善、合理的完全分解模型,基于完全分解模型,运用1980~2008年分产业国内生产总值以及能源消费相关统计数据,定量测算并深入分析了能源消费变动及各个影响因素的贡献率、节能量和节能率。研究结果揭示了我国能源消费变动的原因,为进一步研究我国对能源的需求趋势和制定相关的能源政策提供参考。

An Analysis of Changes and Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in China Based on Complete Decomposition Model

The complete decomposition model(CDM) can solve the residual problem ignored by Laspeyres index and its decomposition approach perfectly.In this paper,the CDM is used to analyze the energy consumption and the main influence factors in China.With a categorization into different industries,relativities between GDPs,the energy consumption intensity and the industrial structure adjustment are studied as the main influencing factors of the energy consumption changes for the period between 1980 and 2008,with a comprehensive analysis and quantitative calculation of the contribution,the energy-saving capacity and the rate of energy saving as influenced by the above factors.The result of the study reveals the causes of the changes in China’s energy consumption,and provides a reference for further study of China’s energy demand trends and for the decision making in the development of relevant energy policies.