林产品对外贸易与林业产业发展的实证研究——以江苏省为例

林产品对外贸易与林业产业的关系越来越引起学术界的关注。本文以江苏省为例对二者关系进行实证性研究。文章在利用单位根检验对变量平稳性考察的基础上，应用协整方法对变量的长期均衡进行分析，并应用Granger因果检验方法对变量之间的因果关系进行了经验性研究。研究结果表明，在样本区间内林产品对外贸易与林业产业之间存在协整关系，江苏省林业产业发展是林产品对外贸易的Granger原因，而林产品对外贸易对林业产业发展的影响则不够显著。因此，笔者建议从林业产业自身进行调整，促进林业产业结构升级，增加林产品对外贸易总量， 并进一步协调产业政策与贸易政策的关系，从而使对外贸易在林业产业健康成长中真正扮演“发动机”的角色。

Empirical Studies on the Relationship between Foreign Trade of Timber Products and Forestry Industry:Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example

The relationship between foreign trade of timber products and forestry industry has been received more and more attention.This paper examines their relationship using Jiangsu Province as an empirical study.Based on unit root test and co-integration analysis,the paper analyzes the co-integration of the variables.The causal relationship between the variables is further examined using Granger causality test.The results show that during the examined period there exists co-integration between foreign trade of ti...