人民币汇率对我国原木进口价格的传递效应研究——基于汇率制度改革的视角

汇率是影响一国贸易价格的重要因素,原木是我国重要的原材料和进口产品,其进口价格对国内木材市场和林产工业具有重大影响,研究人民币汇率对我国原木进口价格的传递效应是探索国内木材市场价格变动规律的基础和重要依据。基于2004年1月至2019年6月的月度数据,同时考虑汇率制度改革的影响,运用自回归分布滞后模型研究人民币实际有效汇率对我国原木进口价格的长期和短期传递效应。结果表明,人民币汇率变动会引起原木进口价格反方向的变动;短期内汇率传递不完全,长期内汇率传递过度;人民币汇率制度改革对原木进口价格的汇率传递效应有影响,但作用较小。最后,提出了建立木材市场价格监测预警体系,加强国内木材储备林基地建设,促进原木的进口市场分散化程度等政策建议。

RMB Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices of China's Logs:From the Perspective of Reforms of Exchange Rate Regimes

Exchange rate is a vital factor influencing trade prices of a country.Logs are important raw materials and imported products in China,and their import prices have a significant influence on the domestic timber market and forest products industry.The research on exchange rate pass-through(henceforth ERPT)into import prices of China’s logs is an important basis for exploring the fluctuation law of domestic timber market prices.Based on the monthly data from January 2004 to June 2019,considering the reforms of exchange rate regimes,this paper uses the ARDL model to calculate the ERPT into import prices of China’s logs in the long and short run.The results show that RMB exchange rate movements cause movements of log’s import prices in the opposite direction;the ERPT is incomplete in the short run and greater than 1 in the long run;two reforms of RMB exchange rate regimes have an effect on the ERPT into import prices of China’s logs,but in a slight manner.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions such as establishing a detection and early warning system for timber prices,strengthening the establishment of domestic timber reserve forests,and increasing the degree of decentralization of the log import market.