系统模型在实证经济分析中的应用介绍——以农村公共投资研究为例

社会经济实证研究在设计一项研究方案时首先要明确的三大因素是 :研究的目标 ,依据研究目标所形成的假说或者说要回答的问题 ,为实现研究目标、检验研究假说而依据的理论框架和所采用的分析方法。选择恰当的分析方法对实现研究目标以及对所获得研究结论的科学性和合理性至关重要。当某一组经济活动同时受另一组因素共同作用时 ,这些因素对该组经济活动的影响结果以及其因果关系很难独立区分 ,同时各经济变量之间具有内生性 ,在这种情况下如采用单方程模型分析就会造成模型估计结果有偏 ,因而需要采用系统模型。

Introduction to the use of system equations in demonstration socio-economic analysis:a case study of rural public investment

In projecting any socio economic studies, three basic elements need to be made clear: research objectives, hypothesis to be formed or questions to be answered, analytical method or modeling technique for verifying the hypothesis and achieving the objectives. Selecting appropriate modeling techniques is crucial to realizing the objective and guaranteeing the reliability and validity of research results. When a set of economic activities are simultaneously affected by another set of elements, it is difficult to tell apart each and individual impact of these elements on the activities and their causal relationship and there exists an endogenous issue between economic variables. In this case, single equation modeling analysis may lead to deviant results. Hence the necessity of employing system equation analysis.