广东入境旅游规模差异及其演变趋势研究

文章以广东省21个地市的2002-2013年共12年的入境旅游人数为样本数据,运用位序规模理论,标准差(VOC)、基尼系数(G)以及赫芬达尔系数(Hn)等计量指标,以及分形理论的R/S分析法依次分析了广东省入境旅游规模分布现状、区域差异化程度及未来入境旅游规模的演化趋势,得知广东省入境旅游规模呈高度首位型分布、区域间差异化较为明显且集聚程度下降,其入境旅游规模将在未来一段时间内持续扩大。

Studies on Differences of Inbound Tourism Scale and Its Evolution Trend in Guangdong Province

Taking 21 cities from Guangdong province as examples,this paper analyzes inbound tourism scale distribution of the status quo in Guangdong Province. Data from 2002 to 2013 are gathered and used as the sample. Regional differences in the degree and the future evolution of the inbound tourism scale trend are looked into,methods of the rank scale theory,the standard deviation（ VOC）,the Gini coefficient（ G） and the Herfindahl coefficient（ Hn） measurement indicators,as well as the fractal theory R/S are used. The conclusion is as follows： the scale of inbound tourism in Guangdong Province is the type A distribution highly; interregional differences become more obvious and the agglomeration degree also begins to decline; inbound travel scale trend will continue to expand in the future.