试析波普否定"历史规律"的推导模式

波普认为人的自由意志极大地影响了历史客观进程,从而导致了历史过程无客观的规律性。他坚守线性因果规律观,否认趋势是规律的特殊形式,否定“历史规律”的客观性和可能性。他认为规律应该具有普遍有效性、重复性、可检验性,然而人类历史过程是一个不可逆的单一的历史过程,历史科学中的假设是对特殊事件的猜测,是不可检验,不可证伪的,所以没有一条贯穿社会历史过程的规律。他还给出了由“纯粹的逻辑理由”可推知历史无规律可循的逻辑论证,但他的说法却难以自圆其说。从本体论、认识论、方法论、“纯逻辑理由”等方面分析波普否定“历史规律”的推导模式,可以发现因波普将证伪主义方法论、因果律和知识的作用绝对化,使其否定“历史规律”之说有失偏颇。

An Analysis of Popper's Reasoning Against the "Historical Laws"

Popper believes that man's free will can affect the objective historical course extremely ,thereby, there are no laws in the historical course. He insistes on the law of causation,denies that trend is a special form of laws,and denies the objectivity and possibility of "historical laws".As he thinks,laws should be general,valid,repetitive and can be tested,but the human history is a single and inreversible course,and the hypothesis of historical science is just a guess of special events,and it can't be tested, or proved to be wrong, so there is not a law through the historical course.He also gives a logical reasoning,which concluds that there are no laws in the history by "pure logical reasoning",but it is difficult for him to justify himself. Analysing Popper's concluding mode of denoting "historical laws" by ontologism , epistemology, methodology and "the pure logical reason",it can be found that Popper has absolutized falsificationism, the law of cause and effect, and the effect of knowledge,so his theory of denoting "historical laws" is deflected.