我国地区产业多样化的演变及其影响因素研究

基于我国二位数产业数据，采用熵值法测算中国的总体产业多样化，并进一步分解为相关和无关多样化，考察我国产业多样化的演变趋势和形成机制，并实证研究其影响因素。结果表明，总体上我国地区产业相关、无关多样化分别呈现倒U和正U型演变趋势，2004年后波动幅度减少，趋于平稳变化；技术进步和交易成本下降均有效促进相关多样化，而阻碍无关多样化发展，竞争和工资水平分别抑制和促进产业多样化。

A Study on the Evolution and Determinants of Regional Industry Diversification in China

Based on 2-digit industries in China from 1988 to 2012, this paper estimates industry diversification level and decomposes it into related and unrelated variety by employing the entropy index. The evolution pattern and mechanism of industrial variety is analyzed, and the empirical study is implemented to explore the determinants of the industrial variety. The results indicate that related and unrelated variety respectively shows inversely U-shaped and U-shaped evolution trend from 1988 to 2003, then become stable. Technical progress and decline in transaction costs effectively promote the related variety, but opposite for unrelated variety; The industrial competitiveness has a significant negative and positive relationship with industry diversification. The rise in wages plays a positive role in the industry diversification.