| 汽车市场需求预测建模及其应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马超群,赵海龙.汽车市场需求预测建模及其应用研究[J].湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马超群 赵海龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学,工商管理学院,湖南,长沙,410082 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用指数增长模型和向量自回归VAR等模型对中国汽车普及进行预测分析.采用协整误差校正模型,分析2008年全球金融危机对中国汽车市场需求的影响.根据汽车普及存在相似性现象,提出了一种新的预测方法,对中国中长期汽车市场需求进行了预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 汽车 市场需求 预测模型 |
Research on the Modeling of Automobile Demand Forecasting and Empirical Analysis |
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| MA chao-qun,ZHAO hai-long.Research on the Modeling of Automobile Demand Forecasting and Empirical Analysis[J].Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences),2009,23(4). |
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| Authors: | MA chao-qun ZHAO hai-long |
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| Abstract: | In this article, an exponential increasing model and a VAR model are adopted to forecast and analyze the automobile popularization of China. A cointegration and error correction model is adopted to analyze the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on automobile market demand of China. A new forecasting method is proposed base on the similarity phenomenon exists in automobile's popularization to forecast the medium and long term automobile market demand of China. |
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| Keywords: | automobile market demand forecasting model |
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