经济政策不确定性、企业出口生存与出口转内销

基于2000-2014年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关进出口数据库与Baker等编制的经济政策不确定性指数的匹配数据，本文实证研究了目的国经济政策不确定性对中国企业出口生存的影响。研究发现：目的国经济政策不确定性的提高显著增加了企业出口失败的概率；异质性分析发现，非国有企业、非东部地区企业，以及出口到高收入国家的企业受经济政策不确定性的影响更大；进一步分析发现，经济政策不确定性的提高显著促进了企业“出口转内销”，劳动密集型企业和一般贸易企业“出口转内销”的幅度更大。

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Firm Export Survival and Domestic Sales

Based on the matching data of Chinese industrial enterprise database and customs database and the economic policy uncertainty index from 2000 to 2014 compiled by Baker et al., we empirically study the impact of economic policy uncertainty of destination countries on the export survival of Chinese enterprises. The results show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty in the destination country significantly increases the probability of export failure. Through heterogeneity test, we find that non-state owned, firms in non-eastern region and firms exporting to high-income countries are affected obviously by the changes of economic policy uncertainty. Further analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty motivates enterprises to export to domestic sales, and the labor-intensive and firms engaged in ordinary trade are more significant in the magnitude of domestic sales.