北宋的天象灾害预测理论与机构设置

司天监作为古代政府设立的观测天体运动状况的天文机构,一方面,是我国天文科学发展的重要见证,学术界也多以此和职官设置等角度,对其进行研究;另一方面,从设立这一机构观测天体运动的目的来看,在天道人事观的治国思想影响下,这个具有极强科学性的天文机构,却是统治者预测祸福吉凶的主要工具。而灾害作为能够造成重大经济损失、影响政权基础的重要因素,以及上天对统治者为政得失的警告,自然也成为了天象预测的重要内容。在这层意义上,我们把司天监当作古代的官方灾害预测机构进行研究,以期更加全面地了解这一机构的特征和我国古代灾害管理的途径及方法。

Calamities Prediction Theory and Institution of Astronomical Phenomena

Si Tian Jian ,an institution of astronomy set up by the ancient Chinese government to observe the activities of celestial bodies,witnessed the essential development of China's astronomy on one hand,and the academic circles have also conducted researches on Si Tian Jian from various angles,such as astronomical development, official ranks, and so on. On the other hand,Si Tian Jian was a highly scientific institution of astronomy. However, from the respect of observing the celestial bodies, it was a main tool for the rulers to forecast good and bad fortunes under the influence of the conception of managing the country in the view of Tian Dao Ren Shi (a point of view stating that activities of bodies have close connections with people's good and bad fortunes) With the characteristics of causing severe economic losses affecting the foundation of power and being a warning by nature against the rulers in office about their gains and losses, calamities have naturally become an important part of astronomical phenomena forecast. In this sense, we make the study of Si Tian Jian as the calamities prediction institution of the government in the ancient times to expect a more comprehensive understanding of the features of the institution and controlling approaches of calamities in China.