开放经济下人民币汇率制度选择分析

2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,金融全球化趋势日渐明显 ,伴随着资本流动的加快和汇率波动的频繁 ,金融危机时有发生。而历次金融危机都与汇率制度的安排和国际资本流动密切相关 ,这使得汇率制度的选择成为各国政府无法回避的理论和现实问题。中国现行的汇率制度是以市场供求为基础的、单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制 ,其实质是“有管理而无浮动”的固定汇率制 ,面对“入世”后金融业的对外开放和资本项目的逐步放开 ,目前的汇率制度将受到严峻挑战。本文从现行汇率制度的缺陷入手 ,以蒙代尔 -弗莱明模型为理论分析框架 ,着重对人民币汇率的市场化改革提供政策建议

Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate System Under the Open Economy

There has been a marked tendency of financial globalization since 1980's. Financial crisis emerges now and then partly because of the international capital circulation and the exchange rate floating. There exists a close relationship among the financial crisis, circulation of the international capital and the arrangement of exchange rate. So it has become a theoretical and practical problem about the choice of exchange rate system to the governments in many countries. The present exchange rate system in China is a single, managed and floating one based on the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. It is fixed and managed but not floating in essence. Faced with the gradual opening of finance and capital account after entering WTO, it will meet great challenges. This paper aims to, based on the Mundel-Fleming Model, reveal the defects of the present exchange rate system and make valuable suggestions on the policy as to the marketalization of RMB exchange rate system under the condition of capital account opening.