中国区域人口安全发展态势及其空间集聚效应研究——基于GPCA模型和ESDA方法

在建立人口安全评价指标体系的基础上,通过对GPCA模型和ESDA（探索性空间数据分析）方法的运用,从省域层面出发对全国31个省（市）区2005—2008年的人口安全水平的发展态势进行了动态综合评价,并就其空间集聚效应进行了尝试性的探讨分析,探究其集群效应的空间分布及其核心区域。结果表明,虽然近年来中国区域人口安全水平之间的发展差距趋于缩小,但各省（市）区间仍存在显著差异,不均衡发展的态势十分突出,且在空间分布上存在显著的自相关现象和集聚效应。各省域均未脱离其期初原有的集群范畴,时空跃迁类型呈现出高度的空间稳定性,核心—边缘空间分布格局已初步形成且较为稳定,时空演化具有严重的路径依赖性。

Evaluation of Population-security and Research of Spatial Agglomeration Effect in Chinese Provinces——Based on GPCA Model and ESDA Technique

Based on the evaluation index system of population-security among provinces in China,this article makes dynamic comprehensive evaluation of population-security on 31 provinces between 2005 and 2008 through GPCA model and ESDA（Exploratory spatial data analysis） technique.It also makes tentative analysis on effect of spatial agglomeration.The result indicates that although the gap of population-security among different provinces is decreasing,there are still significant discrepancies in them and the whole development is conspicuously disproportional.There is evidence that the layout of population-security indices has obvious character of agglomeration and spatial autocorrelation.Meanwhile,there is explicit sign of path dependence in their space-time evolution and the center-periphery pattern has been formed stably.