工程项目风险的模糊层次综合评价研究

工程项目的风险管理水平已成为决定工程项目成功与否的关键因素,风险分析与评价是目前风险管理研究中的热点领域。依据工程项目风险因素的性质,将工程项目风险因素指标分为社会风险、经济风险、技术风险、自然风险及管理风险等五大类。以此为基础,提出同时采用层次分析法(AHP)和主成分分析法进行风险发生概率的评价,在两种评价方法结果不一致时,辅以模糊综合评价技术对工程项目风险进行分析评价,以提高工程项目风险评价的准确性和科学性。

Research on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Construction Project Risk

The risk management of construction project has become the key to success of construction project,and risk analysis and evaluation has become the hot topic of risk management research at present.In accordance with the risk features of construction project,the risk factors of construction project can be divided into social risk,economic risk,technical risk, natural risk and management risk.On the basis of this,this paper suggests that analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and principle component analysis(PCA) can be used to evaluate the possibility of project risk.When the results of the two evaluations are different,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation can be used to evaluate and analyze the construction project risk in order to enhance the accuracy in the construction risk evaluation.