国际贸易、产业结构对环境污染的影响——基于面板数据动态GMM模型

基于2000-2010年我国29个省级区域的面板数据,采用动态面板模型GMM估计方法,分析了国际贸易和产业结构对工业二氧化硫、工业废水、工业烟尘、工业粉尘等四类污染物的排放量的影响.实证结果显示,国际贸易程度的增加与工业二氧化硫、工业烟尘、工业粉尘三类污染物排放存在较强的正向影响而且都很显著,而有助于降低工业废水的排放但在统计结果上不显著.产业结构对四类污染物排放的影响都很显著,其中对工业二氧化硫和工业粉尘的排放起到了很好的抑制作用,而对工业废水和工业废气的排放起到了推动的作用.FDI与四类污染物存在明显的负相关,说明FDI有利于抑制污染物的排放,起到了降低环境污染的作用.另一方面,从弹性值来看,产业结构的弹性系数要大于国际贸易和FDI的系数,这说明国际贸易、FDI对环境的影响较小,而产业结构对环境的影响普遍较大.同时,加入收入这个控制变量显示环境Kuznets曲线在我国具有一定的适用性.

The Impacts of International Trade and Industrial Structure on Environmental Pollution——Based on Dynamic Panel Data GMM Model

This article is based on 2000-2010 panel data of 29 provincesin our country, using dynamic panel model of GMM estimation method, analyzes the effects of international trade and industrial structure on the emission loads of the four types of pollutants: industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial wastewater, industrial fumes, industrial dust, etc. The findings show that the increase of international trade has a strong and notable positive influence on the emission of the three pollutants: industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial fumes, industrial dust, significant, but is beneficil to reduce the discharge of industrial wastewater with no significant sign in statistics. The influcences of industrial structure on the four types of pollutants are very significant and obvious: the industrial emissions of sulphur dioxide and industrial dust have been effectively inhibited, while the emissions of industrial wastewater and waste gas have been greatlypromoted. FDIis clearlynegativelyrelated to the four types of pollutants: FDI is helpful to curb the emissions of pollutants, and plays an important role in reducing environmental pollution. On the other hand, from the aspect of elasticity, the elasticity coefficient of industrial structure is greater than the coefficients of international trade and FDI,which shows that international trade and FDI have little influence on environment, while industrial structure has a generally larger impact on environment. At the same time, the revenue control variables show that environmental Kuznets curve has certain applicability in our country.