贵州农业生产、财政农业支出、非农就业与农民收入的协整和误差修正分析

根据贵州省1985-2008年的统计资料,运用协整分析与Granger因果关系检验法来探讨该省农业生产、财政农业支出、农村居民非农就业与农民纯收入的动态关系。结果表明：贵州省农业GDP对农民实际纯收入的影响不太显著,农业财政支出的增加并未很好地带来农民收入的提高,而农民的非农就业对农民增收具有促进作用。因此,改善农业财政投资结构以及推动农民非农就业才是提高农民收入的有效途径。

Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling of Agriculture, Government Spending on Agriculture,Non-Agricultural Employment and Farmers' Income in Guizhou

According to statistic data of Guizhou Province from year 1985 to 2008,cointegration and Granger causality test are used to explore dynamic relationships among the provincial agricultural production,expenditure on agriculture,non-farm employment of rural residents and farmers＇ net income.The results are shown as fallows： the GDP of the province does not have significant effect on the rural net income;the increase spending on agriculture doesn＇t well bring about the increase of the farmers＇ income,which is,however,facilitated by the non-agricultural employment of the rural people.Therefore,it is to improve agricultural expenditure and to boost rural population＇s non-agriculture employment that can be considered as an effective way to increase the rural income.