出生性别比持续上升中的减缓趋势及其原因

在总结新中国成立以来出生性别比偏高态势的基础上，利用1982年以后的人口普查及人口抽样调查数据，计算了出生性别比的年均增长率，并据此进行总体及分类比较，认为：2000-2005年我国出生性别比在持续上升过程中已呈现出减缓趋势，这种减缓由城市化发展、人口流动加速、妇女受教育水平提高、婚姻市场调节以及养老保障制度不断完善、政府引导及合理的制度安排等因素促成，是男孩偏好“真性弱化”和“假性弱化”交替作用的结果。

The Slowdown in the Continuously Rising Process of Sex Ratio at Birth and Its Cause

On reviewing China＇s high sex ratio at birth since 1949, and by using the data of censuses and population sample surveys since 1982, the author calculated the average annual growth rate of sex ratio at birth, and made overall and classified comparisons. The conclusion is hence made that the ratio showed a slowdown in the rising process from 2000 to 2005, which is supposed to be caused by urbanization, population flowing, increase of woman educational level, marriage market regulation, and the improvement of old age security, government guidance and the sound mechanism. In addition, it is the fruit of the alternative function of ＂true weakening＂ and ＂pseudo-weakening＂ preferences for sons.