适度人口测度与影响因素的文献综述——兼论我国城市适度人口测度

城市适度人口测度将是我国城市规划和城市化推进的重要基础,围绕适度人口测度方法、区域适度人口测度模型和城市适度人口影响因素三个方面进行文献综述,形成关于我国城市适度人口测度的四个观点:一是城市适度人口测度是建立在既定目标基础上,且要从单一经济目标向经济社会、资源环境等多元化目标拓展,并根据具体情况有针对性地确定城市适度人口的短板因素;二是就城市适度人口的确定原则来看,借鉴供需均衡和可能满意度等理念,考虑以城市人口为核心的边际社会收益和边际社会成本原则;三是在适度人口确定理念上要从静态适度人口过渡到动态适度人口,尤其是要考虑系统外生变量对特定条件下的城市适度人口影响;四是根据多目标条件下的动态适度人口测度技术方法,在因素的选择上要围绕经济、社会、资源和环境的边际社会成本和边际社会收益展开,同时要考虑内生因素和外生因素。

A Literature Review of the Measurement of Optimum Population and the Influencing Factors: A Concurrent Discussion on the Measurement the Urban Optimum Population in China

The optimum of urban population in China is essential for the urbanization and city plan.This paper reviews literature from three aspects: the measure methods, the measure models and influencing factors of optimum urban population to the urbanization, and forms four ideas on measurement of urban optimum population.First of all, this measure is based on the fixed goal, and is to expand from the initial single target of economic development to the multiple targets combined with economic and social development, resources utilization and environmental protection, and research the different weak factors in different situations.Secondly, from the measuring principle, we take the typical economics theory of supply-demand equilibrium and the idea of self-reported happiness into this research, and consider the perfect condition of marginal social benefit equaling to marginal social cost.Thirdly, facing on the original theory of optimal population, we advance the computing model from the static concept to the dynamic concept.Especially, on the process of measurement, it is needed to consider the impact of exogenous variables not included in the system.At last, in that case, we construct the estimating system containing both social benefit and social cost, and choose the indicators including economic and social development, resources utilization and environmental protection.In the meantime, identify the exogenous impacting factors from the endogenous ones.