我国养老保险制度改革下个人福利的评价

为了比较1997年起实施的统账结合制与原先的现收现付制对个人福利的影响，首先用叠代模型对上述两种制度的运行进行比较，然后根据具体数据对两种制度下的个人福利水平进行实证分析。结果表明，影响个人福利水平的因素有个人账户收益率、人口增长率以及由劳动生产率提高所导致的工资增长率；将现收现付制改为统账结合制实际上是对个人福利水平的降低。在现阶段的中国，随着劳动生产率的提高和城市化进程的加快，工资水平的上升和城市人口的增多，使得现收现付制的养老保险制度在城镇仍具有存续条件。结合国际经验，随着人口老龄化的加剧，在将来，积累制将成为较优选择，因此，现阶段需要对个人账户基金进行多元化投资以提高个人账户收益率，从而使居民福利得到改善。

Individual's Welfare under China's Reform of Old-Age Insurance System

To compare the planning - and - account system implemented in 1997 with the original PAYG system, firstly the iteration model is used to describe the operation of the two systems, and then specific data are used to study respectively the two individual welfares under the two systems. The results are： the individual welfare level is affected by such factors as the return rate of the account, population growth and wage increase caused by raise of labor productivity; using the social - planning - plus - personal - account system to replace the PAYG system actually results in the reduction of individual welfare. Given China~ present economic situation, with the raise of labor productivity, accelerating urbanization, and wage and urban population increase, the PAYG system still has viability in urban areas. According to international experience, accumulative pension system makes a better choice in the future with population aging; therefore, the investment of the individual accounts should be diversi- fied so as to raise the return rate and welfare level.