农业保险促进农业生产率了吗？——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验

农业保险发展有两个效应，即福利效应和效率效应，分别体现为农民福利水平的变化和农业生产效率的变化。从效率的角度出发，利用中国2007—2012年省际面板数据进行实证研究发现，农业保险发展对农业生产率存在显著的抑制效应，且通过农业技术进步进行传导，说明目前中国农业保险市场存在扭曲，农业保险发展过程中存在道德风险和逆向选择问题。风险越大，农业保险发展对农业生产率的抑制效应就越明显。因此，在设计农业保险产品时不能一味地补贴，要注意避免道德风险与逆向选择问题的出现，这样才能发挥农业保险保障农业生产的作用。同时，需要增加对农业固定资产的投入，推动农业技术进步，进而提高农业生产率。

Does Agricultural Insurance Promote Agricultural Productivity？— A Case Study Based on China' s Inter-provincial Panel Data

Since 2007， China has begun to focus on developing agricultural insurance. The Promulgation of Agricultural Insurance Regulations in 2012 means that China' s agricultural insurance has achieved a larger breakthrough during the standardized and institutionalized process. The first rule of the agricultural insurance regulations tells us that， agricultural insurance' s goals are to protect the lawful rights and interests of the parties who are involved in the agricultural insurance activity and to improve the anti-risk ability in agricultural production. These two goals reflect the two effects of agricultural insurance， welfare effect and efficiency effect. The first goal of agricultural insurance is to improve the level of peasants' welfare， and the second goal is to increase the efficiency of agricultural production. However， the researches on agricultural insurance pay more attention to the welfare analysis while neglecting the efficiency analysis． The empirical research in this paper finds that the development of agricultural insurance has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural productivity， and the inhibitory effect is conducted through agricultural technology progress. It shows that at present there is some kind of distortion in China' s agricultural insurance market. That is to say， moral hazard and adverse selection problems have emerged in the development of agricultural insurance. The greater the risk， the more obvious the inhibitory effect of agricultural insurance development on agricultural productivity. Research suggests that while considering the design of agricultural insurance products， the governments should not blindly subsidize farmers， but they should pay certain attention to the occurrence of moral hazard and adverse selection problems. And only in this way can the agricultural insurance ensure the function of agricultural production. In addition， the related department needs to increase investment in agriculture of fixed assets and promote the agricultural technology progress so as to increase agricultural productivity． Compared with the existing researches， the contributions of this paper lie in the following two points. First， it is a tentative study of the relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural productivity， while most existing literature focuses on agricultural insurance welfare analysis but ignore the efficiency analysis. Second， based on the calculation and decomposition of agricultural productivity， it empirically studies the relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural technology progress and the relationship between the agricultural insurance and agricultural technology efficiency， and further analyzes the internal influence mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural productivity. Thirdly， based on the introduction of agricultural insurance and risk interaction variables， this paper reveals the role of agricultural risk in the relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural productivity．