中国农业产出缺口测算及其价格效应研究————基于劳动力有限供给视角

城镇化和工业化吸收了大量农村剩余劳动力，导致农业生产投入要素失衡，加剧了农副产品消费需求和产出供给的矛盾，产生价格上涨压力。基于“缺口-价格”模型的实证研究显示，负向农业产出缺口对农副产品价格具有滞后1-3期的直接正效应，18个省份分地区面板回归验证了直接价格效应的存在且滞后期为3-4期；工农业产出缺口存在长期均衡关系，但短期内两者的影响弹性不显著。由此可知，农业产出缺口对通货膨胀存在直接效应和间接效应，治理通胀要从加大农业生产扶持、协调工农业生产和畅通农副产品流通渠道入手。

The Calculation of China's Agricultural Output Gap and the Price Effect Research : Based on the Perspective of Limited Supply of Labor

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy in our country,in the early days of our country's foundation-planned economy era,by the means of the scissors difference between the industrial products and the agricultural products,agricultural resources were transferred to industrial sectors,thus establishing the completed system of national industry .After the reform and opening up,along with the development of rural economy,the marketization of agricultural production factors configuration propels the transformation of production factors such as labor,land in rural resources into more comparative advantaged industry and service sectors,leading to the disequilibrium of agricultural production factors inputs .At the same time,the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has intensified the contradiction of consumption demand and supply of agricultural products .The rising price pressure of agricultural products acts as the driver of inflation .According to the macro economic theory,whether to make full use of the factor resources and to acquire maximum sustainable output affect the price,however,the existing research only use the Phillips curve to study the relationship of output gap and inflation at the macro level,no thought and tentative research on subdivided economy sectors and decomposition of inflation have been found . Compared with the existing research,the innovations of this paper are the following three aspects : (1) Under the hypothesis of limited supply of labor,the marginal impact of agricultural output gap on inflation is derived from the apply of″two-sector″model(Feder,1983)and extended C-D production function,this paper puts forward theoretical propositions :agricultural output have direct price effect and indirect price effect on price .(2) Based on quarterly macroeconomic data from 2002 to 2013,this paper uses the agricultural″output gap-price″model to demonstrate the direct price effect of agricultural output gap as well as its time lag .Furtherly,panel data of 18 provinces verifies the robustness of the above conclusion . (3 ) The long-term equilibrium relationship between the industrial output gap and agricultural output gap is proved by EG two-step method,but the ECM model test shows that the short-term relationship is not significant . In this paper,the empirical research finds that negative agricultural output gap has a direct positive effect on price of agricultural products,this effect shows 1 3 order lag,while the provincial panel data shows 3 4 order lag,this is consistent with the traditional macroeconomic theory .There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between industrial output gap and agricultural output gap,showing a consistent trend .However,the short-term impact elasticity was not significant .This result proves that agricultural output gap affects output gap through industrial output gap,thus verifies the proposition hypothesis of indirectly promotion effect on inflation by agricultural output gap as well as its time lag .This paper concludes that to fight inflation we should start from strengthening the support for agricultural production,cultivating modern agricultural production system through capitalization,mechanization and industrialization,enhancing coordination of industrial and agricultural production and smoothing the circulation channels of agricultural products .