稳定低生育水平战略决策的回顾与前瞻

我国提出计划生育政策和稳定低生育水平的战略决策有深刻的历史背景,是对我国国情的理性判断.而当前我国的人口问题已不同于实行计划生育以前的人口问题,除了人口数量依然需要给予足够的重视外,人口质量、结构、流动迁移等问题比以前更为复杂多样,也需要得到充分关注.如果不能把低生育水平稳定住,各种人口问题会变得更加严峻,因此,稳定低生育水平是我国在人口问题上重大战略决策的继续和完善,是理性的选择.通过节约人口投资、推动城乡改革、提高我国整体实力和国际竞争力、缓解人口对资源环境的压力,为提升两代人的人力资本创造条件.稳定低生育率能促进生产力发展,提高人民生活质量,实现社会的和谐进步.此外,稳定低生育率还为我国庞大的人口转化为丰富的人力资源创造条件.虽然继续稳定低生育率也必将伴随一些负面影响,但总的来说对我国今后经济社会发展利大于弊.生育水平并不是越低越好,根据人口发展的特点,结合我国的实际情况,总和生育率(TFR)稳定在1.8左右在一个时期内是较优的选择.

Strategic Policy on Stabilizing the Low Fertility Level: Retrospect and Prospect

Considering the basic national conditions,including big population,inadequate per capita resources and low level of economic and social development,the Chinese Government has formulated and implemented a family planning policy which conforms to China's reality and has greatly contributed to the stabilization of the national and the world population,and to the promotion of human development and progress.The excessive population growth has been brought under effective control.China has accomplished a historic transition from high fertility rate to low fertility rate.Current population issues are different from those before the implementation of the family planning policy.At present,the population size is no longer the only essential issue which requires attention.Such issues as population quality,structure,migration and so on should also be attached much importance because they have become more complicated.All population issues will be more difficult to solve if the low fertility level cannot be stabilized.Large population and limited resources is still the realistic situation in China.Population size is a pressure for resources and the environment.In addition,inertial population growth will last for a period of time.Therefore,as a continuing policy and essential part of China's population strategy,stabilizing the low fertility level is a rational choice.Through saving population investment, promoting national reform,improving the strength and international competition capability,alleviating population pressure on resources and environment,upgrading human capital of two generations,stabilizing the low fertility level,we can accelerate productivity,improve the quality of people's life,and promote the harmonious progress of the society.In addition,competition between nations in the future will be a resource competition of talents.How to develop human resources and improve the quality of human resources are the key factors in promoting China's competition capability.Stabilizing the low fertility level will help transform a large population size to a rich human resource.Considering the characteristics of population development and China's real situation,an optimal choice is that the total fertility rate can be stabilized at around 1.8.The fertility level is not always the lower the better.