非传统安全视角下中国粮食贸易安全水平的测度

基于非传统安全视角，在综合考虑国内外粮食市场行情、外部冲击因素、内部产业因素和受控可能性的基础上，构建粮食贸易安全水平的评价指标体系，并对我国粮食贸易安全水平进行测度后发现：1992-2011年我国粮食贸易安全状态多为贸易弱态和贸易劣态，总体处于基本安全和基本不安全状态，且口粮和饲料粮的贸易安全状态高于工业用粮；在粮食贸易安全变化趋势上，小麦贸易安全水平有小幅上升，而稻米贸易安全水平波幅减小且略有下降，玉米贸易安全水平围绕0值上下波动，大豆贸易安全水平呈“阶梯式”下降；我国粮食贸易安全的主要影响因素依次是产业竞争力、国内市场行情、外部冲击因素、产业政策、受控可能性和国际市场行情。

Measurement of Chinese Food Trade Safety from the Non-Traditional Security Perspective

As economic globalization deepens and food trade increases， it’s crucial to measure and evaluate China’s food trade security from the non-traditional security perspective. From a single country’s perspective， food trade security means a country can take effective measures to resist the impacts of external factors， such as sharp price fluctuations， grain embargo， international political and economical crisis， and obtain the needed food through trade to fill domestic food gap. In view of multiple countries， food trade safety is the superior co-existence between food trade subjects. Various food trade subjects gain sustainable development through mutual reciprocity and benefits by food trade.  Principal component analysis （PCA） was taken to measure China’s food trade security level. The conclusion is: First， from 1992 to 2011 the overall security situation of China’s food trade is mostly in the weakening and degradation survival state， involved between basic safety and basic insecurity， and wheat， rice and corn trade have higher security state than soybean. Second， wheat trade security has a small rise， the rice trade security has fallen slightly， corn trade security fluctuates around zero， and soybean trade security step down. Third， the main influences on China’s grain trade security， in sequence of importance， include the competitiveness of the industry， the domestic market， the external impact factors， industrial policy， the possibility of being controlled and the international market. This article may have three innovations. （1） The research contents focus on China’s grain trade security， which the existing research has not been carried out in depth. （2） The measurement thought marks a step in advance of traditional security concept， deeming the superior co-existence between China and her food trade partners as trade safety， extending trade safety’s boundary to multilateral security constructions， emphasizing on nationally， regionally and globally trade policy coordination and trade rules revision， and joint responses to global food crisis.（3）This article evaluates trade security from three dimensions， including ″security transformation，″ ″security threats，″ and ″security sense.″ First， considering the program from domestic and foreign perspectives， to what extent the factors leading to China’s grain trade ″safety″ problems are investigated， including world food gap， international food price volatility， domestic food gap and per capita food purchasing power. Next， how the factors threaten China’s grain trade security are examined， such as the volatility of international financial assets price， energy price and the exchange rate， and the domestic food industry’s competitiveness. Then， the possibility of being controlled is introduced as simple objective decision criteria for ″trade security sense″.  The deficiency of this article is the political changes and wars are not taken into account in evaluating food trade security because they are sudden and hard to quantify．