中国经济到了刘易斯转折点了吗?——-来自贫困地区的证据

在过去的几年中,劳动力短缺已经成为日益关注的问题,尤其是在沿海地区。然而,关于中国是否到达刘易斯转折点而进入劳动力短缺时代依然存在很大的争论。大多数这方面的实证研究都建立在对总体劳动力供给和需求的估计上。由于劳动力统计数据的质量参差不齐,这些争论很难调和。工资数据比就业数据更为准确。基于对甘肃省农忙和农闲时期工资的发展演化模式的长期调研发现,无论其他影响因素是否被控制,实际工资水平总是不断地向上攀升。贫困地区实际工资在加速上涨,甚至农闲时期也是如此,表明剩余劳动力的时代已经结束。该发现对中国未来的发展模式具有重要的政策意义。

Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point:Evidence from Poor Regions

In the past several years,labor shortage has become an emerging issue,particularly in the coastal region. However,there is a heated debate on whether China has passed the Lewis turning point and entered a new era of labor shortage. Most empirical studies on this topic focus on the estimation of total labor supply and demand. Because of the poor quality of labor statistics,the debate is hardly reconciled. The wage rate data is more accurate than employment data. In this paper,the evolving patterns of wage ra...