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我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究
引用本文:周英章,蒋振声.我国产业结构变动与实际经济增长关系实证研究[J].浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2002,32(3):146-152.
作者姓名:周英章  蒋振声
作者单位:浙江大学经济管理学系,浙江杭州,310029
摘    要:经济增长理论已成为国内外学者研究的现实热点,但对于产业结构变动和实际经济增长之间的关系还存在较大的理论分歧.通过运用时间序列经济计量技术对我国的产业结构变动和实际经济增长的关系进行实证分析.可发现:格兰杰因果关系检验证实产业结构变动是影响我国实际经济增长的重要原因,而实际经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著的影响;协整检验表明二者存在着长期均衡的协同互动关系.实证结果为我国实际经济增长尽快实现由依靠增加投入的粗放型方式向依靠结构转换、提高资源配置效率的集约型方式的根本性转变提供了理论分析和实证检验的依据.

关 键 词:产业结构变动  实际经济增长  协整  格兰杰因果关系检验  
文章编号:1008-942(2002)03-0146-07
修稿时间:2001年6月18日

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Adjustment of Industry Structure and the Real Economic Growth in China
ZHOU Ying-zhang,JIANG Zhen-sheng.The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the Adjustment of Industry Structure and the Real Economic Growth in China[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities and Social Sciences),2002,32(3):146-152.
Authors:ZHOU Ying-zhang  JIANG Zhen-sheng
Abstract:Based on the normal theory of economic growth, this paper analyzed the relationship between the adjustment of industry structure and the real economic growth by time series technology. The Granger causality test shows that the adjustment of industry structure is the important reason of real economic growth, but the economic growth has no obvious effect on the adjustment of industry structure. The co-integration test shows that there is stable equilibrium relationship between them. The profound policy implication of the result is that China should change the traditional pattern of economic growth thoroughly.
Keywords:adjustment of industry structure  real economic growth  co-integration  Granger causality test  
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