省际竞争对中国农业的影响

我国省际农业竞争存在负向空间溢出效应，对农业生产率产生了负向影响，这一消极影响随时间呈逐步扩大趋势，并在不同区域普遍存在。各省同构化的农业生产结构抑制了农业增长速度。我国农业发展应根据各省的资源禀赋，发挥比较优势、优化区域布局、鼓励差异化发展，从而减少负溢出效应和生产率损失，并通过提高教育水平、增加涉农财政支出、改善灌溉等基础设施条件，实现“乡村振兴”战略中的“产业兴旺”目标。

The Impacts of Interprovincial Competition on China’s Agriculture

The Chinese national food security strategy has shifted from emphasizing grain output to emphasizing grain production capacity，which requires reforming the formation of agricultural production structure and regional distribution in keeping with regional resource endowment. In this new historical background, whether agricultural policies should stick to regional self-sufficiency or encourage moderately differentiated development based on resource endowment in the future, depends on whether there exist positive or negative spillover effects of agricultural production in each province and the impact of agricultural competition on productivity. However, currently there are two problems in the research on China’s agricultural interprovincial competition and its spatial spillover effects in academia: one is that it is difficult to accurately measure the concept of ″competition″; the other is that it is difficult to extend the influence of competition on the overall or industrial economy to the agricultural field. This article uses a spatial production model to investigate the levels of interprovincial agricultural competition and its impacts on China’s agricultural production from 1995-2015. A model averaging method is adopted to combine the competitions of two dimensions (segment-and region-wide) into multi-dimensional competition. Moreover, an agricultural TFP determination equation is used to estimate the effects of interprovincial competition on agricultural productivity and test time and regional heterogeneityrespectively. There are three central contributions of this article: (1) The bi-dimensional correlation between segment and region has been taken into account to estimate the agricultural productivity more precisely; (2) Multi-dimensional intensity index can be utilized to distinguish the heterogeneity of different competitors; (3) It analyzes the interprovincial agricultural competition from both spillover effects and productivity. The empirical results are as follows: (1) It finds evidences of negative spillover effects due to competition, which may reduce the productivity growth; (2) Agricultural competitions vary greatly among provinces. Traditional agricultural provinces face the most intense competition in agriculture, while ethnic minority or more remote provinces face less intense competition; (3) An agricultural TFP determination equation shows negative impacts on total factor productivity due to competition; (4) Moreover, these negative effects are not only widespread in different regions, but also tend to expand gradually. Therefore, based on the above empirical results, the following two policy implications are put forward: one is to encourage differentiated production of interprovincial agriculture; the other is that against the background of ″rural revitalization″, the government should strengthen the investment intensity in education, the financial support for agriculture and infrastructure, so as to effectively improve the agricultural total factor productivity, ensure a sustainable agricultural growth with high quality and achieve the goal of an ″industrial prosperity″ in agriculture.