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我国化工企业的财务预警模型构建及其检验——基于Logistic回归方法
引用本文:胡跃红,黄婧.我国化工企业的财务预警模型构建及其检验——基于Logistic回归方法[J].长沙理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,26(6):41-45.
作者姓名:胡跃红  黄婧
作者单位:长沙理工大学,经济与管理学院,湖南长沙,410114
摘    要:借助Wilcoxon秩检验比较11家ST与54家非ST化工企业之间在53个财务比率上存在的显著差异,筛选出能够较好反应企业财务状况的33个财务比率,利用因子分析方差最大化旋转对企业财务信息进行统计处理,分析得出主因子得分,构建相应的Logistic回归模型,得出具有较高准确性的化工企业财务困境预警系统,发现企业债务状况、获利状况、权益增值能力对企业财务困境有显著的预警作用。

关 键 词:财务困境  Wilcoxon秩检验  因子分析  Logistic回归

The research of financial difficulties warning system in China's chemical industry
HU Yue-hong,HUANG Jing.The research of financial difficulties warning system in China's chemical industry[J].Journal of Changsha University of Science & Technology,2011,26(6):41-45.
Authors:HU Yue-hong  HUANG Jing
Institution:(School of Economics and Management,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha Hunan 410114,China)
Abstract:This paper avails of Wilcoxon rank test to compare the 11 ST and 54 non-ST chemical companies on the 53 financial ratios between the existence of significant differences in screening out the better response to the financial situation of 33 financial ratios.With the application of factor analysis of variance maximizing rotation of the company’s financial information for statistical processing,it derives the scores of principal factors,and constructs the corresponding Logistic regression model to arrive at the financial distress early warning system of the chemical industry with high Accuracy.The results show that corporate debt status,profit status,rights and interests of value-added plays the role as a warning to significant enterprise financial difficulties.
Keywords:financial difficulties  Wilcoxon rank test  factor analysis  Logistic regression
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