我国经济增长与人口出生率的计量分析

目前我国经济快速增长是否对家庭生育意愿产生影响,是当前较少触及的问题。国内大多数学者研究经济发展与人口增长之间的关系,而采用人均GDP与人口出生率指标分析经济增长对人口生育产生影响的研究却较为少见。研究得出,我国经济增长对家庭生育意愿确实产生了负作用;G ranger因果检验分析结果显示,经济快速增长的确是我国人口出生率下降的原因;并对二者进行协整检验,也显示出二者之间具有长期稳定的负均衡关系。

Quantitative Analysis of Economic Growth of China and Fertility

Whether China's rapid economic growth at present has influenced procreation desire is a unsolved question.Most scholars in China studied the relationship between economic growth and population growth,but the number of scholars who use index of average GDP and fertility to analyze whether economic growth has influenced procreation is very small.The paper shows that economic growth has a negative effect on procreation desire;and Granger test of causality indicates that economic rapid growth is Granger Cause fertility decrease.The study by using co-integration test on economic growth and fertility demonstrates that the two variables have a long-term negative equilibrium relationship.