基于国际服务贸易与经济增长的实证思考——一项因果关系的统计检验及启示

当代全球经济正日趋显现经济服务化趋势,国际服务贸易与经济增长联系日益紧密。服务贸易不是经济增长的直接解释变量,却能通过影响主要增长要素间接作用于经济增长。国际服务贸易与经济增长二者存在理论上的因果关系,政府应大力提升服务贸易的发展层次,积极促进承接服务产业的国际转移,通过优化我国对外贸易结构,促进经济的持续增长。

Empirical Thought on International Service Trade and Economic Growth——A Statistical Test on Causality and its Enlightenments

The contemporary global economy is gradually manifesting the tendency of economy orientating towards services and the international services trade is closely intertwined with the economic growth.Although service trade is not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth,it can affect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors.Based on an empirical statistic study,this paper points out that theoretically there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth.The government is supposed to strengthen the developing level of service trade and actively move forward the transfer of the service industry,which will contribute constant economic development by optimizing foreign trade structure in China.