我国商业健康保险需求影响因素的实证分析

随着新的商业健康保险个人所得税政策的发布，商业健康保险发展政策利好不断释放，市场前景被广泛看好。虽然目前我国商业健康保险取得了较好发展，但是仍然存在巨大的潜在需求未能有效转化。文章选取我国1997—2015年中国GDP、卫生总费用、老年人口比重、人口总量、城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额、教育支出等有关数据，通过EVIEWS软件进行多元回归分析，对影响我国商业健康保险发展的因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明，人口老龄化状况、人口总量、城乡居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额对商业健康保险需求存在正向作用，卫生总费用的提高会减少商业健康险保费，对商业健康保险业的发展具有一定的抑制和挤出作用。

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors of Commercial Health Insurance Demand in China

With the promulgation of the new personal income tax policy of the commercial health insurance, the development policy of commercial health insurance is favorable and the market prospect is optimistic. Although the current commercial health insurance in China has achieved good development, there are still huge potential demand that is not effectively converted. This paper selects the relevant information of China's GDP, total health expenditure, the proportion of aging population, total population, the balance of urban and rural residents' RMB savings deposits at the end of the year, and education expenditure in China from 1997 to 2015, and makes multiple regression analysis through EVIEWS software, so as to make an empirical analysis on the development of commercial health insurance in China. The empirical results show that population aging, population gross, the balance of urban and rural residents' RMB savings deposits at the end of the year all have a positive effect on the demand of commercial health insurance, and the increase of total health expenditure will reduce the premium of commercial health insurance, and have the extrusion and inhibition effect on the development of commercial health insurance.