全球价值链下四大需求对德国经济增长拉动作用的测度及对我国的启示

本文以世界投入产出表为数据来源，测度了全球价值链背景下四大需求对德国经济增长的拉动作用。结果表明，对德国经济增长拉动贡献最大的三大需求分别是国外消费、国内消费和国外资本形成。由于德国增加值率下降，德国国内资本形成需求小幅增长，国内资本形成对德国经济增长的拉动贡献为负数。德国经济增长主要表现在服务业和制造业的增长。国内消费、国外消费、国外资本形成是拉动德国服务业增长最重要的需求动力；国外消费、国外资本形成是拉动德国制造业增长最重要的需求动力。最后，文章得出三点启示供中国借鉴德国经验参考。

The Measure of the Pulling Effect of Industrial Growth of Germany from Four Big Demands in Global Value Chain

With the world's input-output table as the data source, the paper measures pulling effect of industrial growth of Germany from four big demands in global value chain. The results show that three major demands of German economic growth are foreign consumption, domestic consumption and foreign capital formation. Due to decline in the value added rate of Germany, and the German domestic capital formation grew slowly, the pulling effect of economic growth of Germany from German domestic capital formation is negative. German economic growth is mainly reflected in the growth of service industry and manufacturing industry. Domestic consumption, foreign consumption, foreign capital formation are the most important driving forces for the growth of German service industry; foreign consumption and foreign capital are the most important driving forces for the growth of German manufacturing industry. Finally, three points are obtained for China to learn from German experience.