考虑消费者提前购买行为的双渠道零售商延迟送货策略研究

“双11”“618”等促销打折季会使得一部分暂时还不需要产品的消费者在评估产品未来可能的价格和获得性的基础上，做出提前购买的决策。在考虑消费者的这种提前购买行为的基础上，构建四种双渠道零售商供应链模型，并通过对比分析四种模型的均衡解，研究双渠道零售商的延迟送货策略问题。研究结论表明:零售商不会选择在两个渠道同时允许消费者提前购买，再延迟送货；零售商在哪个渠道允许消费者提前购买，再延迟送货取决于零售商线下渠道所占的市场份额；零售商允许消费者提前购买，再延迟送货，制造商和零售商均能获得更大的利润；消费者的提前购买行为会导致产品的批发价格和零售价格上涨。

Study on Delayed Delivery Strategy of Dual-channel Retailer Considering Consumers' Pre-purchase Behavior

Promotion discount seasons such as "double 11" and "618" will make some consumers who don't need products for the time being make the decision of purchasing in advance on the basis of evaluating the possible price and availability of products in the future. In this paper, four models of dual-channel retailers' supply chain are constructed on the basis of considering the advance purchase behavior of consumers, and the problem of delayed delivery strategy of dual-channel retailers is studied by comparing and analyzing the equilibrium solutions of the four models. The results show that: retailers will not choose to allow consumers to purchase in advance and then delay delivery in both channels; which channel is chosen by retailers depends on market share of retailers’ offline channel; if retailers allow consumers to purchase in advance and delay delivery, both manufacturers and retailers can get greater profits; and consumers' advance purchase behavior will lead to the increase of wholesale and retail prices of product.