区域经济基本面与住房价格波动——1999-2008年东、中、西部地区房价动力因素的经验研究

本文基于住房价格决定的＂存量—流量＂理论分析框架,运用面板数据模型实证检验了1999-2008年间中国东、中、西三大地区经济基本面因素对住房价格波动的影响。研究结果表明,经济基本面对住房价格波动的影响具有显著的区域差异性和阶段差异性。区域住房价格波动具有较强的自相关特征,以2003年为时界点以来的住房价格历史信息对现期房价波动具有更大的解释力度,住房价格上涨已经脱离了区域经济基本面的动力支撑,预期和投机因素加剧了房价的波动,区域住房价格泡沫化趋势非常明显。

Regional Economic Fundamentals and Housing Prices Fluctuations——Empirical Analysis of Regional Housing Prices Driving Forces in China(1999-2008)

Based on the ＂stock-flow＂ theory framework of housing price determination,this paper attempts to explain the impacts on housing prices fluctuations driven by major macroeconomic fundamentals using panel data models of eastern,central,and western regions in China over the period 1999-2008.Empirical results indicate that major macroeconomic variables significantly have interregional discrepancies and phrasal discrepancies in explaining housing prices volatility.Moreover,the research results show that regional housing prices appreciation is apparently auto-correlated,that historical housing prices information has been more powerful to explain the current price volatility and housing prices have gone beyond the scope supported by the driving force of regional economic fundamentals since 2003.