Logistic模型在上市公司财务预警中的应用研究

建立财务预警系统,提早发现上市公司陷入财务危机的征兆,采取相应措施,进行危机管理,可以大大提高上市公司的抗风险能力,同时也能够保护企业相关利益者的利益。本文使用定量分析的方法,建立了基于主成分分析的Logistic预警模型判别是否发生财务危机。随后选取了35家陷入财务危机的公司和67家非财务危机公司作为样本,以2002年至2004年间的公开财务报表的数据为计算依据,并利用SPSS统计分析软件进行了实证分析,并获得比较理想的结果。

Logistic Model in Financial Early-warning System in Enterprises

An effective financial early-warning system for listed corporations can be established to find out the premonition of crisis,then measures can be taken to control it in time.Therefore,the listed corporations can improve their ability to resist risk and keep away the financial crisis.The paper adopts quantitative analysis to construct Logistic model based on PCA to judge whether a company gets involved into financial crisis.After selecting 35 listed corporations which are in the financial crisis and 67 listed corporations which are not in the financial distress as the sample companies,the statistic software,SPSS,is used to analyze these companies according to their open financial reports.Finally,satisfactory results are obtained.