跨境河流水量冲突诱致因素解析

厘清跨境河流水量冲突的诱致因素是降低跨境河流冲突风险的前提。根据国内外跨境河流数据库资料，分析跨境河流水量冲突的诱致因素。基于跨境河流水量冲突的频次筛选典型河流；对典型河流水量冲突的相关事件进行深入剖析，提取典型河流水量冲突的诱致因素，并分析共性因素；利用最优尺度回归模型对共性因素进行验证，定量分析水量冲突共性诱致因素的影响力。研究发现：人口因素、经济因素和水文条件对水量冲突具有显著影响，其中，水文条件与水量冲突呈现负相关性，而政治外交关系和约束体系的影响并不显著。

Analysis of Induced Factors of Cross border River Water Conflict

To clarify the induced factors of cross border river water conflict is the premise of reducing the risk of cross border river conflict. Based on the database of cross border rivers, this paper sorted out the causes of cross border river conflicts, and screened out the typical rivers. Then, we explored the induced factors of water quantity conflict in typical rivers and extract the common factors. Finally, the optimal scale regression model was used to verify the common factors and quantitatively analyze the influence of the common factors induced by water quantity conflict. The results showed that population factors, economic factors and natural factors had significant impacts on water quantity conflict, among which natural factors were negatively correlated with water quantity conflict, while the influence of political and diplomatic relations and constraint system was not significant.