“ 一带一路”中国区域水资源利用效率评价——基于超效率DEA-Malmquist-Tobit方法

提升“ 一带一路”中国区域各省市水资源利用效率,最大程度减轻水资源利用不足对经济产生的约束效应,可从水资源角度为“ 一带一路”倡议的充分实施提供有力支撑。 通过超效率DEA模型和 Malmquist 指数对 2011—2015 年“ 一带一路”18个省市的水资源利用效率进行测度,并用Tobit 模型识别关键影响因素。 研究结果表明:“ 一带一路”18 个省市水资源利用效率整体呈上升趋势,各省市差异较大,呈现东南>西北>东北>西南的区域格局;水资源全要素生产率指数变动整体呈增长趋势,其变化主要由技术进步所决定;人均 GDP 和人均水生产与供水企业产值对水资源利用效率具有显著正向作用,人均水资源量、人均水利、环境和公共设施管理业固定资产投资、农业用水结构、水生产与供水企业数量与水资源利用效率呈显著负相关。 基于此,提出加强区域间技术合作、优化农业用水结构、合理进行水利设施项目投资和深入推进区域水权市场建设的对策建议。

An Analysis of Water Utilization Efficiency of the Belt and Road Initiative's Provinces and Municipalities in China Based on DEA-Malmquist- Tobit Model

Improving the efficiency of water resources utilization in China''s provinces and cities and eliminating the constraint effect of water resource utilization on economic growth to the greatest degree may promote the full implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative from the perspective of water resources. Based on super efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index, the paper measures the panel data from 2011 to 2015 of the Belt and Road Initiative''s 18 provinces and municipalities in water utilization efficiency and then applies the Tobit model to test its influential factors. The result shows that the overall level of water utilization efficiency of 18 provinces and municipalities is good. There is a growth trend of water utilization efficiency and the differences between provinces and cities are large. The water utilization efficiency of whole regional shows the increasing tendency from eastsouth, northwest, northeast to westsouth. Technological progress is the influential and decisive factors which have impact on the change of water resources total factor production efficiency. GDP per capita and water production-supply enterprises'' output value per capita have positively correlated relationship with water efficiency while water resource per capita, water conservancy and environment and public facilities investment per capita, industrial water, and agricultural water utilization, the number of production- supply enterprises have negative correlated relationship with water efficiency. Therefore, the paper proposes the following the ways to improve water efficiency: strengthening the inter-regional technical cooperation, optimizing the structure of agricultural water use, investing properly in water conservancy projects, and further promoting the construction of water rights market.