中部地区农产品进出口与经济增长关系的协整分析

利用1985~2004年的经济数据,在单位根检验和协整分析的基础上进行了G ranger因果检验和建立误差修正模型,对我国中部地区农产品进出口与经济增长关系进行了协整分析。结果表明:我国中部地区农产品进出口与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且是单向的格兰杰因果关系,农产品出口对经济增长的作用大于农产品进口。因此,应积极发展外向型农业,促进中部地区经济发展,最终实现中部崛起。

An Integration Analysis of the Relations between Import and Export of Agricultural Products and Economic Growth in Central China

With economic statistics from 1985 to 2004 and on the basis of unit root test and integration analysis,this paper conducts the Granger causal relation inspection and builds an error correction modal.Then it proceeds to make a case study on the relations between foreign trade of agricultural products and economic growth in central China.From the study it reaches the conclusion that there exists some stable long-term balancing relation between the two factors,that the relation is of one-way Granger causal relation,and that the export of agricultural products is of greater significance to economic growth than the import.Therefore,it is important to develop export-oriented agriculture so as to promote the economic development and realize the prosperity of central China.