FDI、城镇化与江西省物流产业发展

基于江西省1984-2015年的时间序列数据，建立VEC模型，对江西省外商直接投资(FDI)、城镇化与物流产业发展水平之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明，外商直接投资、城镇化与江西省物流产业的发展之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，并且三者之间存在长期的均衡关系；VEC模型估计结果表明，在短期，外商直接投资对江西省物流产业发展的影响方向与长期均衡方向保持一致，城镇化则不然。方差分解分析结果表明，外商直接投资对江西省物流产业发展的影响程度较高，达到57%，然而，城镇化的贡献率则比较低。

The Impact of FDI and Urbanization on the Development of Logistics Industry in Jiangxi Province

Based on the time series data of 1984-2015 in Jiangxi Province, this paper builds a VEC model, and makes an empirical study on the relationship between foreign direct investment(FDI), urbanization rate and the development level of logistics industry in Jiangxi Province. There is a two-way Granger causality relationship between foreign direct investment, urbanization and the development of logistics industry in Jiangxi Province, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the three; VEC model estimation results show that in the short term, foreign direct investment in Jiangxi Province The development direction of the logistics industry is consistent with the long-term equilibrium, while urbanization is not. The results of analysis of variance analysis show that foreign direct investment has a high impact on the development of logistics industry in Jiangxi Province, reaching 57%. However, the contribution rate of urbanization is relatively low.