| 江苏省独生子女数量测算及其风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 潘金洪,姜继红.江苏省独生子女数量测算及其风险分析[J].扬州大学学报(人文社会科学版),2007,11(1):103-108. |
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| 作者姓名： | 潘金洪 姜继红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京人口管理干部学院,工商管理系,江苏,南京,210042
2. 扬州大学,发展规划处,江苏,扬州,225009 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用第五次人口普查资料和相关部门的统计报表,根据出生总人数与该项人数之间的逻辑关系,首次系统地对1980年以来江苏省出生的独生子女数量进行了估算,并对2010年前可能新增的独生子女人数进行了测算。研究结果显示,庞大的独生子女群体和独生子女家庭的出现将给江苏社会带来深远的影响;而由于独生子女自身的风险和家庭结构的缺陷,必将给家庭和社会带来系列风险。该研究对控制因独生子女引发的新型家庭和社会风险具有重要现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 独生子女 数量测算 家庭风险 社会风险 江苏省 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7030(2007)01-0103-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月11日 |
A Numerical Estimation of the Only Children in Jiangsu and the Risk Analyses |
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| PAN Jin-hong,JIANG Ji-hong.A Numerical Estimation of the Only Children in Jiangsu and the Risk Analyses[J].Journal of Yangzhou University(Humanities and Social Sciences Edition),2007,11(1):103-108. |
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| Authors: | PAN Jin-hong JIANG Ji-hong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Fifth National Census and the data of the concerned departments,the paper takes advantage of the logic relation of birth sequencing and makes the first systematic numerical estimation on only children born in Jiangsu ever since 1980.Statistics show that there have been 12,395,784 only children born between 1980 and 2003 and the figure will reach 17,320,459 by 2010.This astronomical number of only children and their families will bring about far-reaching influence upon Jiangsu.Therefore,the analyses to the possible derived risks are of much significance. |
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| Keywords: | only children numerical estimation family risk social risk Jiangsu |
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