| 大型工程项目进度—费用联合风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王英磊,徐哲.大型工程项目进度—费用联合风险分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2000,13(4):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王英磊 徐哲 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院，北京航空航天大学经济管理学院 北京 100083，北京 100083 |
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| 摘 要： | 从工程项目风险管理的角度出发,阐述了大型工程项目的风险特征。基于Monte carlo仿真方法,建立了大型工程项目进度-费用联合风险估计仿真模型,并对仿真结果进行统计分析,获得了进度-费用联合风险曲面。由此得到各种进度费用组合下的风险概率分布。最后结合算例说明了进度-费用联合风险的定量估计方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险 风险分析 系统仿真 网络计划 工程项目 |
A Analysis of the Huge Engineering Project's Combined Risk of Schedule and Cost |
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| WANG Ying-lei,XU Zhe.A Analysis of the Huge Engineering Project's Combined Risk of Schedule and Cost[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(Social Sciences Edition),2000,13(4):43-46. |
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| Authors: | WANG Ying-lei XU Zhe |
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| Abstract: | From the viewpoint of risk management for engineering project, the characteristics of the risk of huge engineering projects are mentioned. Based on the simulation method of Monte carlo, a simulation model of combined schedule-cost risk is set up. By analyze the results of the simulation model, a graph of combined schedule-cost risk is achieved by which the distribution of risk under variable combinations of cost and schedule could be gotten. At last a case study is presented in detail to illustrate the process of risk estimation of the combined schedule-cost risk. |
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| Keywords: | Risk Risk Analysis System Simulation Network Program Engineering Project |
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