房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨--基于省际面板数据的分析

根据2003—2012年中国省际面板数据，运用Granger因果关系检验模型检验房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨三者之间的作用关系。研究结果表明，房地产价格上涨与信贷扩张、地价上涨三者之间存在着相互反馈的作用机制。对房地产价格上涨的各影响因素进行估计后发现城镇劳动者工资上涨、地价上涨和信贷扩张对房地产价格上涨产生正向影响，房地产供给对房地产价格上涨具有负向影响。增加房地产供给，限制房地产业信贷规模和平抑地价是抑制房地产价格过快上涨的重要途径。

Effect of Real Estate Prices Surge on Credit Expansion and Land Prices Rising:Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

Based on Chinese provincial panel data during 2003—2012, this paper tests the relationship among the rising real estate price , the credit expansion and the increasing land price by Granger causal model .The result shows that there is a mechanism of mutual feedback among the three factors above-mentioned .After evaluating the influence factors which lead to the rising real estate prices , it is found out that urban workers wages , the increasing average land price and credit expansion have an important positive influence on the rising real estate prices ;but the supply of real estate has a negative effect on the rising real estate prices .It is very important to control fast rising real estate prices by increasing the supply of real estate , limiting real estate credit expansion and stabilizing land price .