流转税和所得税的福利效应研究

 本文根据我国城市（镇）不同收入阶层1999年至2008年的支出结构数据及现金收入和支出统计状况，测算出我国城镇居民消费支出的有效税率②和所得税额；利用跨期消费决策的两期模型，构造居民消费效用函数，即消费者的福利函数，测算出我国流转税和所得税的福利损失（成本）。结果显示：我国居民消费符合边际消费倾向递减规律；不同收入阶层的消费时间偏好不同，收入水平越低越倾向于当前消费；流转税具有明显的累退效应，而所得税的累进效应，特别是个人所得税的累进效应不明显，使得我国当前的税制结构对收入分配的调节力度不够。

Study on the Welfare Effects of Commodity Turnover Tax and Income Tax

In this paper,the author calculates the effective consumption tax rate and income tax of urban residents in China,according to expenditure structure and cash income and the disbursement situation of town different income levels from 1999 to 2008.The residents’ consumption structure,i.e.consumers’ utility function of welfare function is constructed,using intertemporal consumption choice model in two-period.Further,the welfare effects of tax changes are examined with the model.The results show that: the residents’ consumption follows the law of diminishing marginal propensity to consume;Different income groups have different consumption time preferences,the lower income people,the more are inclined to current consumption;Furthermore,indirect tax presents obviously degressive tendence,while direct tax is progressive.But it is not distinct,especially for the individual income tax.This makes the tax system adjust the distribution of earning inadequately.