家庭人口结构变动对居民消费的影响研究——基于微观家庭面板数据的分析

居民消费与家庭人口结构密切相关,本文基于2018年和2019年国家统计局住户调查数据,构建基于微观家庭的平衡面板数据随机效应和固定效应模型,结合我国人口未来变动趋势,从家庭人口年龄结构、城镇化属性、受教育水平三个维度着手,就家庭人口结构变动对家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,城镇化率提高、城镇化发展质量提升以及居民受教育水平提高有助于提高家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性,人口老龄化对家庭平均消费率具有负面效应,更为积极的生育政策能够促进居民消费。本文建议持续推进以人为核心的新型城镇化,坚持教育优先发展,持续优化生育政策,积极应对人口老龄化,挖掘老年人口消费潜力,推动建设高水平国内消费市场。

Study on the Impact of Changes in Household Population Composition on Household Consumption: An Analysis Based on Micro Household Panel Data

Household consumption is closely related to household population structure. On the basis of the widely representative household survey data carried out by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in 2018 and 2019, this paper constructs a random effect and fixed effect model using balanced panel data of micro households. Combined with the future trend of China’ s population change and started with the three main dimensions ie. family population structure of the age composition of the household population, urbanization attribute and educational attainment, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of changes in family population structure on family average consumption rate and consumption income elasticity. The results show that the increase of urban population ratio, the improvement of urbanization development quality, as well as the improvement of residents’ education level, help to improve the average household consumption rate and consumption income elasticity. Population aging has a negative effect on the average household consumption rate, and a more active fertility policy can promote residents’ consumption. This paper suggests that we should continue to promote the new urbanization with people as the core, strengthen the development of education,continuously optimize the fertility policy, actively deal with the aging population, tap the consumption potential of the elderly population, and promote the construction of a high-level domestic consumption market.