中美贸易摩擦、全球价值链分工与福利效应

基于全球价值链分工,本文利用2018年中美贸易摩擦加征关税清单、世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和中美家庭消费支出调查等数据,使用Taylor一阶展开法和考虑消费异质性的Creedy方法测算了中美贸易摩擦给全球价值链参与者带来的福利效应。研究发现:第一,无论基于Taylor一阶展开法还是Creedy方法,本轮贸易摩擦给中美两国自身带来的福利损失最大,且美国受损程度明显高于中国;第二,全球价值链上加拿大、墨西哥等北美自由贸易区(NAFTA)成员以及日本、德国、英国等经济体受中美贸易摩擦影响的福利损失较大;第三,国别责任分解表明中美福利损失主要来源于自身加税行为,而其他绝大多数经济体的损失主要由美国加税引致;第四,收入分配方面,中美贸易摩擦引致的中国福利损失是累退性的,而美国福利受损程度与收入呈现非线性的“倒U型”关系,表明中美贸易摩擦不利于收入分配格局的改善。全球价值链各参与者应秉持人类命运共同体理念,积极主动维护多边贸易规则和国际治理秩序。

China-US Trade Friction,Global Value Chain Division and Welfare Effect

Based on the fact of global value chain division and additional tariff lists issued by China and the United States on each other’s products due to the bilateral trade friction in 2018, WIOD database and the household expenditure surveys of China and the US, this paper uses Taylor first-order expansion method and Creedy’s method to evaluate the welfare effect of China-US trade friction on GVC participants. The results are as follows: Firstly, based on either the Taylor method or Creedy’ s method, China and the United States suffered the most, and the welfare loss for the US is higher than that for China. Secondly, NAFTA members such as Canada and Mexico, and Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom along the global value chain suffered a lot from China-US trade friction. Thirdly, country responsibility decomposition reveals that most of the welfare loss for China and the US comes from their tariff adding behavior, while that of most other economies is mainly induced by the US. Fourthly, as for the income distribution effect, the welfare loss for China is regressive across different income levels, while there exists a typical inverted U curve between the welfare loss and income level for the US, which suggests that China-US trade friction does harm to the income distribution of both countries. Therefore, “ Beggar-thy-Neighbor” will harm both oneself and others, and all participants in the global value chain should uphold the vision of the community with a shared future for mankind and maintain the multilateral trade rules and international governance order.