金融周期、金融波动与中国经济增长——基于省际面板门槛模型的研究

本文应用面板门槛模型，研究了2005-2017年间我国31个省（市、自治区）金融波动对经济增长的影响。研究发现，随着金融周期所处阶段的变化，金融波动对经济增长会产生显著的非对称性双重门槛效应，主要体现为如下两点：首先，金融周期处于膨胀期、平稳期和萧条期时金融波动对经济增长会产生负向影响，但从影响系数值的大小来看，处于膨胀期时最大，是后两者的2倍之多，处于平稳期时最小且并不显著；其次，分区域的稳健性检验表明，金融发展水平高的区域双重门槛值出现得早，且两个门槛值间的区间要比金融发展水平低的区域宽28%。这些结论说明，经济增长对于金融波动的容忍弹性会随着金融周期所处的阶段而变化，金融发展水平的提高会放大经济增长对金融波动的容忍区间，但也会加速金融周期处于膨胀期时爆发金融危机的可能性，这使得当前我国存在着进一步发展金融水平和严控金融风险的矛盾，对此本文也提出了相应的政策建议。

Financial Cycle,Financial Fluctuation and China’sEconomic Growth—A Study Based on the InterprovincialPanel Threshold Model

This paper studies the impact of financial volatility on economic growth in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) of China between 2005 and 2017 using the panel threshold model. The study finds that with the change of the stage of financial cycle, financial fluctuation will have a significant asymmetric double threshold effect on economic growth, which is mainly reflected in the following two aspects: firstly, when the financial cycle is in the periods of inflation, stability and depression, the financial fluctuation will have a negative impact on economic growth, but from the magnitude of the impact coefficient, when the financial cycle is in the period of inflation, it is twice as much as that of the latter two, and when the financial cycle is in the period of stability, it is the smallest and not significant; secondly, the robustness test shows that the double thresholds of regions with high level of financial development appear early, and the interval between the two thresholds is 28% wider than that of regions with low level of financial development. These conclusions show that the resilience of economic growth to financial fluctuation will change with the stage of financial cycle, and be affected by the level of financial development; the improvement of financial development level will enlarge the tolerance range of economic growth to financial fluctuation, but will also accelerate the possibility of financial crisis when the financial cycle is in the inflation stage, which leads to the conflict between further financial development and strict control of financial risks in China. For this we also put forward corresponding policy suggestions.