中国住房市场政府干预的原理与效果评价

 本文首先在住房存量流量模型的基础上，对住房市场政府干预的政策目标和政策工具进行了理论刻画，然后联合应用干预分析模型和面板数据模型就2003年以来住房市场政府干预的主要政策组合对北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津和重庆6重点城市的作用效果进行了定量评价。结果表明：全国性政策工具对重点城市住房价格产生了显著的长短期干预效果，尤其是2005年和2006年国务院的两次综合干预以不同形式和力度抑制了房价增长；政府干预的有效性逐渐提升，但全国性政策工具对不同城市的作用力度有显著差异，表现为对二线城市房价的抑制作用明显高于一线城市；2004年土地交易制度改革可能是造成近年住房价格上升的主要政策因素之一。

Theory and Effectiveness Evaluation of the Chinese Government's Intervention in the Housing Market

Firstly, this paper theoretically analyzes the objective and instruments of government intervention in housing prices based on the stock-flow model. Secondly, by jointly employing the multi-variable intervention analysis and panel data analysis, this paper carries out an empirical study to examine the combined impacts of several important policy measures on the housing price movements in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and Chongqing. The results will show that: (1) Most nationwide intervention instruments have significant short-term or long-term effects on housing prices in major cities, especially the two rounds of the comprehensive control policy led by the State Council after 2005 helped curb fast rising housing prices with different patterns and magnitudes. (2) The effectiveness of this round of government intervention has gradually improved, but nationwide intervention instruments have different impacts on regional housing sub-markets. The negative responses of the second-tier cities’ housing markets were much stronger than those of the first-tier cities. (3) The land transaction regime changed initiated in 2004 might be one of the most important policies that boosted up the housing prices.