中国粮食增产的主要因素贡献分解与实证估算

已有测算中国粮食增产要素贡献率的方法存在虚增或低估某要素贡献率的缺陷,文章通过改进粮食增产贡献率测算方法实证估计了2003—2016年期间单产、播种面积和结构调整对中国粮食增产的贡献。结果表明,中国粮食实现“十二连增”的巨大成就主要是单产增长贡献,年均贡献率50%以上,播种面积和作物内部结构调整也是不可忽视的重要力量,年均贡献率分别为30%与10%以上。然而,未来中国粮食增产依靠播种面积扩大和结构调整的空间变窄,需要探索新的增产路径。

Decomposition and Empirical Estimation of Main Factors Contributing to Grain Yield Increase in China

The existing methods to calculate the contribution rate of grain yield increase factors in China have the defects of either exaggerating or underestimating the contribution rate of certain factors.This paper empirically estimates the contribution of yield per unit area,sown area and structural adjustment to China's grain yield increase from 2003 to 2016 by improving the mea?surement method of grain yield increase contribution rate.The results show that the great achievement of China's grain produc?tion with a 12-secutive-year increase mainly comes from the growth contribution per unit area,with an average annual contribu?tion rate above 50%.The planting area and internal structure adjustment of crops are also important forces that cannot be ig?nored,with an average annual contribution rate of over 30%and 10%respectively.However,in the future,China's grain produc?tion growth depends on the expansion of sown area and the narrowing of the space for structural adjustment,thus new pathways to increase production need to be explored.